Predicting the entire 2026 NFL season

We’ve arrived! The 2026 season is right around the corner, as we immediately get the rematch of Super Bowl LX, with the Seahawks trying to repeat as champs and the Patriots hungry to prove they’re a long-term contender themselves. Once again, what I did here was predict all 272 regular season games (an Excel sheet is attached at the bottom), then went through the individual playoff matchups and determined who I had facing off on the game’s biggest stage come next year’s Valentine’s Day.

Along with analysis for the seven playoff teams on either side of the bracket and how I ended up with them, I’ll actually start by outlining my pick and a dark horse name I like for each of the main awards during NFL Honors. Of course, those two things are heavily connected. Before you disregard my analysis on any of these selections based on your own beliefs, please bear in mind that I was ridiculed a year ago when I projected the Bears to be the NFC’s number two seed and the Patriots to win double-digit games, while ending up with the Lions and Commanders narrowly missing out on the postseason.

This is how I believe the upcoming season is going to shake out:

# Awards:

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# MVP – Justin Herbert

I already outlined why I believe Herbert could go supernova this season when I presented him as one of my “f4ntasy diamonds” (LINK !!) about a month ago, but it’s pretty easy to make a case for it. Although I disagreed with it, he already received one first-place MVP vote last season, and it’s evident to anyone who closely follows the sport how critical is to the Chargers’ overall success. 34-year-old wide receiver Keenan Allen is the only member from their skill position group they willingly decided not to bring back, while second-year running Omarion Hampton should be primed for a breakout season, thanks in part to L.A.’s excellent tackle tandem being available (at least to begin with). Above all else, it’s the arrival of Mike McDaniel, who should present cleaner looks for his quarterback off the wide zone run game he’s installing, which also fits Hampton in return, but with the fullback and tight-ends they brought in to diversify their personnel groupings, I believe we’ll also see their quarterback be unchained on these vertical shots when they condense the formation. Considering their defense may take a slight step back with a coordinator change, the Bolts will need Herbert to create explosives, and I project them as AFC West champs here. Tua Tagovailoa finished second, fourth and seventh in dropback EPA in his first three seasons under McDaniel in Miami before things fell apart this past year, and this is a vastly superior talent.

# Dark horse – Tyler Shough

Although the overall quality of and the bar to clear for the NFC South crown is certainly lower than what the Chargers are facing, New Orleans has a chance to emerge from it, with a lot of weight being put on their second-year quarterback’s shoulders, who has only started nine games so far, but I locked in a longshot MVP bet on at 100-to-1 as soon as Shough’s odds were released. Even in my projections, they take home the division with a 9-8 record, but I see potential for this being a team to watch out for. The defense was already around a top-five unit by several metrics over the latter half of this past year, and now they’ve prioritized surrounding Shough with a lot more talent, particularly among the skill positions. Free agent running back Travis Etienne has gained 1400+ scrimmage yards in three of four seasons as a pro, David Edwards was a fringe Pro Bowl guard in Buffalo previously, and although he’s currently dealing with a hamstring issue, eighth overall pick Jordyn Tyson was the most talented wide receiver in the draft and had reportedly been the star of training camp. If they largely keep those guys healthy, to go with some more interesting names from the middle rounds this past April, now in year under Kellen Moore and Doug Nussmeier, the guy under center could make plenty of noise.

[](https://halilsrealfootballtalk.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/09/opoy.jpg)

# (Non-QB) Offensive Player of the Year – Jahmyr Gibbs

Although I project the Rams to sort of run away with the NFC’s number one seed, I really like the Lions as major bounce-back candidates and champs of the North yet again. My one hold-up when it comes to their overall success and what it means for their superstar running back was the injury to free-agent addition Cade Mays at center, since I was excited about what he’d provide for their interior O-line with a pair of young guards next to him. However, Juice Scruggs at least has starting experience as a pro, to where they’ll be comfortable with that composition. Now, you might argue that Detroit has plenty of mouths to feed in that offense, but their best version in past years has revolved around the run game setting the table, and the distribution of touches in that backfield has never been clearer. Former Chief Isiah Pacheco doesn’t nearly demand the same level of third-down and goal-line opportunities as David Montgomery, we already saw a significant uptick in Gibbs’ usage as 2025 went along, and new OC Drew Petzing quietly had one of the most well-designed ground attacks in the NFL two years with Arizona. He’s certainly proven already that he can be a workhorse-type runner between the tackles, but then his ability to de- and re-accelerate when he hits the corner is seamless, and he consistently makes the first man miss after the catch.

# Dark horse – A.J. Brown

This is another name who is obviously a lot more well-known than Tyler Shough is as a wildcard MVP candidate, but I was shocked to find him at 50-to-1 in OPOY odds. Understandably, people are somewhat apprehensive about Brown right now, based on how the last year-and-a-half and his ultimate departure from Philadelphia looked like on the surface. However, even when they’d show him reading books abo