I think this is a fun idea!
In my opinion, I imagine a scenario where the Allies are pushed out of Europe aside from the UK, but the Nazis are unable to cross the Atlantic. To be honest, the MachineGames Timeline is a bit odd, but here’s the best I can say.
D-Day in this timeline ended in a huge failure, but the Allies weren’t out yet. German tech being advanced led to the Allies being pushed back on multiple fronts to the point where they lose their presence on continental Europe. However, if the Allies, especially America, manage to develop advanced tech, they could even the odds.
Basically the Allies can’t move into Europe, but America has reverse engineered enough Da’at Yichud technology to turn the Western Hemisphere into an impenetrable fortress. This would prevent the Nazis from invading or flying a bomber to nuke New York. Neither side can attack invade each other as the cost is too great. What could happen is the U.S. gets the bomb and uses one on Germany, which leads to Germany pursuing a ceasefire as they are struggling.
With Germany out, the U.S. can build a massive Navy and focus solely on Japan. Germany is unable to help this time as they are too occupied consolidating in Europe and recovering from the atomic bomb. Once Japan is dealt with, the Cold War begins.