It's the lobby balancing system. From my interpretation of what I have looked at online, as I feel that I am in a similar boat, that the system will prioritize putting us in lobbies, on the losing side, due to our stats indicating that we won't do "worse" on a losing team.
The system will not want to put a player such as yourself who may go 25-10, with consistent flag captures, onto the winning team, or a team that has players of similar skill. Instead, you will be put on the "losing" team as a method to potentially even out the playing field.
From an anecdotal perspective, quitting as soon as you begin to notice a loss (for me it is if we lose caps too quickly in breakthrough) appears to reduce the chances of being put onto the losing team. This for me is what I would call a brute-force method, however, since it's not addressing the issue itself, but instead attempting to circumvent it.
There also is one instance where I quit a specific match, and was put into the same lobby, except then on the opposite team.
My W/L rate is 48%, however I "feel" like I am losing more because I sometimes opt to not leave a match, and therefore wasting time. Quitting matches does not appear to actually affect your stats regarding winning or losing matches, so don't worry about getting a penalty for now.